2026 Macro Outlook: Recovery and Structural Opportunity
The global economy: from divergence to rebalancing
The first half of 2026 delivered a divergent picture — a resilient United States, a euro area still scraping along the bottom, and Asia leading the recovery. The United States has kept expanding on consumer strength and AI-driven capital expenditure; euro area manufacturing remains subdued; China and its neighbors have staged the earliest recovery on stabilizing exports and policy support. For the second half, we expect global growth to move from divergence toward rebalancing, with disinflation opening room for easier policy and a friendlier backdrop for risk assets than last year.
Disinflation and the repricing of rates
Inflation across major economies has fallen close to target, but sticky services prices argue for a gradual cutting cycle. We expect one to two Fed cuts in H2, while domestic policy stays appropriately accommodative — a liquidity environment that is broadly friendly to equities. What matters for investors is not the absolute number of cuts but the surprise in the rate path, which remains the core driver of valuation swings. Our models track the China–US real rate differential through the real_rate_gap indicator, which has historically led A-share risk appetite by about a quarter.
With liquidity easing and earnings bottoming out, we would focus on four directions:
- High-end manufacturing and export chains with earnings visibility
- Consumption and services recovery backed by continued policy support
- Rate-sensitive dividend assets and duration strategies
- Upstream commodities as supply-side clearing nears its end
The H2 playbook unfolds in three steps:
- Set the base case: a global soft landing and a moderate domestic recovery, equities over bonds;
- Take structure within the base case: follow earnings along manufacturing upgrade and consumption recovery;
- Leave room for the tail: keep a hedge sleeve and high-liquidity assets in reserve.
Knowing where you are in the cycle matters more than calling the turn. Watch the pace of credit expansion, not just its size. — Yingke Research
| Economy | 2025 growth | 2026 forecast |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 2.1% | 1.8% |
| Euro area | 0.9% | 1.2% |
| China | 4.8% | 4.5% |
On risks, three deserve attention: the cost of geopolitical disruption to supply chains, fiscal sustainability concerns in some economies, and crowded positioning in AI names amplifying short-term volatility. On balance, we believe 2026 is a year when structural opportunity outweighs the aggregate cycle — bottom-up stock selection should add far more value than simple beta allocation.